The First Ever Weekly 20

Fantasy football is a lot like poker. Given my addictive personality, my love of risks and my need to spend a lot of time doing and putting my energy into something that probably wont be paying the bills, i naturally love both of these things. The bond that these two share is far beyond risk and reward or chance, but it is the strategy, and taking advantage of other's mistakes and using them for profit, that distinguishes these two "games" from other forms of chance and lotteries. The frustrating part though, is admitting that fantasy football is, on some levels, a form of chance. You can do everything right, start the right players, find the right match ups, everything, but in reality you are still dealing with the unknown and taking an educated guess at best, and its how much better your educated guess is than your opponents that generates the winnings. In head to head leagues there are weeks where you would have beaten every single opponent other than the person who's "bye-week"-decimated receiving corp (the person usually started Jennings/Driver/Colston) who turned to super sleepers Miles Austin and Jeremy Maclin (yes, both). Avoiding situations like this is a reason a lot of people stick with roto leagues, but things like this happening are just a part of the game. The best thing to do is have a laugh, and if you have trouble laughing, watch this-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJrcQnMUfsM&feature=related .... classic

Anyway, the part i want you to take from this is that while somethings are beyond our control, there are edges to be had that will inevitably increase your profitability. I do not want to turn this week 6 preview into a basics of Fantasy Football 101, however there is one point i want to quickly highlight. Buying low and selling high. Sadly it is saturday so any list i typed up right now would probably be obsolete 24 hours from now so i will save that for tomorrow, instead i will kick off the first ever weekly 20.

Bounce Back Games-

1. Steve Smith (Car)- vs. TB- Been basically nonexistent so far. He had two huge games against tampa last year, and they are a lot worse this year, so i expect big things.

2. Steven Jackson vs Jax- Jackson is actually running well, and has been getting a lot of touches consistently, he only problem has been touchdowns, but i think that will change against this Jacksonville defense.

3. Chris Johnson vs NE- Got nothing going against the colts last weekend, not too sure why it will be different this weekend, but i am going with my gut and that is telling me that CJ will bounce back this week.

4. Greg Jennings vs Det- Jennings is fresh off the bye week and will have fun running through a soft Detroit secondary. Look for him to get back on track and have a monster rest of the year. He is too talented not to.

5. Randy Moss vs Ten-Best remedy for a week of Champ Bailey, a week of the Titans secondary. Moss will run circles around this pass defense and easily show why he is one of the best wr's in the league.

Hot Hot HOT- these players are too hot to bench right now and must be starts going into this week

6. Hassleback/ (7)Burleson/ (8) Housh vs Ari- All three had monster weeks last week and against another bottom of the barrel pass defense i expect a repeat performance.

9. Mendenhall- vs Cle- No. 32 rushing defense, meet Rashard Mendenhall. Even with Parker back and possibly starting, Mendenhall is going to get all the goal line work and if he gets anything going early i expect Tomlin to stick with the hot hand.

10. Aaron Rodgers vs Det- This kid has been on a tear as of late and i like him to keep it going in this matchup against Detroit. It seems that even when he is not throwing to Jennings he is still having fantastic games.

11. Cedric Benson vs Hou- Houston is bottom ten against the run, Benson has been pushing the rock like a Jahova's Witness pushes "The Watchtower." I like him in this matchup all day and his stock will probably be highest after this week.

Not Not NOT-

12. Deangelo Willaims vs TB- J. Stewart is back and mooching carries, it doesnt matter anyway he has been miserable so far.

13. Terrell Owens vs NYJ- TO is having a nightmare season and you add Darrelle Revis to the equation and bam, must sit.

14. Steve Slaton-vs Cin- Cincy has an above average running defense, and Houston has clearly become a passing team. In a ppr league slaton remains a start, infact in most leagues he still warrants a no. 2/ flex start. But i do not see him getting back on track as far as the ground game goes.

Iffy- these players are usually starts but you may want to consider before putting them in this week

15. Pierre Thomas- vs NYG- In his two games back he has been a monster, but he has been troubled this week with some hammy injuries, but many feel as though they were just keeping him out of practice to ensure his availability this weekend, you cannot help but wonder if he will be affected by it. If he is not affected by his hamstring, he will probably be in some way (possibly even near the goal line to the dismay of Thomas owners) affected by the return of Mike Bell, who was holding down the job the first two games of the year. I would probably lean towards sitting Thomas.

16. Sammy Morris vs Ten- In a ppr league i would still lean towards starting this guy, but in a standard league i would keep him on the bench. Even though Fred Taylor is fresh off surgery and Maroney is M.I.A. leaving Morris with the majority of the work load, no running back so far (and there has been some good ones) has dented that Tennessee run defense.

17. Ladanian Tomlinson vs Den- Tomlinson's start has been sketchy to say the least, but he is coming off a bye and has gotten some much needed r & r. Usually i would like this to be a favorable situation for LT but not against the staunch Denver D. I would veer towards sitting LT if you are deep enough.

You're getting veerrrry sleeeeepy- and heres the specialty...this weeks sleeper picks

18. Donnie Avery vs Jax (only owned in 50% of leagues)- Despite his rediculous dance at the end of last weeks game, where he shunned away a teammate to do the stanky leg by himself while his team trailed by 20 points or so at home, he still is a talented receiver. With Bulger back and his squad facing the hapless Jags pass defense, look for a burst out game for Avery, definitely scoop him if you can.

19. Dennis Northcutt - vs GB- With Megatron and Stafford out and the human throwing machine Daunte Culpepper back under center, look for Northcutt to follow up his big week last week in which he led the Lions in both targets and receptions

20. Muhsin Muhammad- vs TB- This is for the deeper 12/14 team leagues, but he could definitely have a big day against the worst passing defense in football. He will be an even bigger gem in ppr leagues as he is always more of a possession receiver than a deep threat.

21 (bonus). Washington D- vs KC - KC has had no semblance of a run game and washintons actually quite good against the pass, i like the Washington D as a pickup for owners of a bye week D.

donofdynastys@gmail.com

Detroit Crock City

I was torn between going Detroit Cry-ons or the Detroit Kittens, but i decided to go with an alternative approach. Anyway, as to their pick. Battles are won up front starting with the line, and that appears to be where one of the lion's biggest needs are (on both sides of the ball). Is anyone noticing a trend here amongst the league's bottom feeders? In the first 7 picks 4 of them will line up in the trenches. There are a few interesting choices available here, including M. Austin (UNC), C. Dunlap (UF), T. Williams (OK) and C. Black (LSU), but i think that the Lions go with the next Glen Dorsey, in fellow SEC'er Terrence Cody of Alabama. The kid is a monster that will help fill the void left by Shaun Rodgers when he was traded to the Browns two summers ago.

1. STL- Sam Bradford- Oklahoma

2. TB- Ndamukong Suh- Nebraska

3. KC- Russell Okung- Oklahoma State

4. OAK- Taylor Mays- USC

5. CLE- Gerald McCoy- Oklahoma

6. TEN- Eric Berry- Tennessee

7. DET- Terrence Cody-DT-Alabama -6'5'' 354lbs Sr.

The Tennessee Bite-ans

Ok perhaps the biggest stretch of all the puns so far. Idk what im even going to do once i get passed the top ten picks because from there on out, they do not really warrant a name like the "Cleveland Frowns." Anyway, with the next pick in our draft, the Titans look to bolster a squad that has looked unimaginably flat and one dimensional through the first quarter of the year. The biggest hole thus far has been the lack of a pass defense. Injuries have plagued the Titans' secondary and has them ranked in the bottom 3 in YPG allowed and even when their wounds mend i do not foresee much of a turn around for this bunch. The best player available that fills this need is the safety Eric Berry, out of Tennessee. He has pro bowl talent and can line up anywhere in the secondary. It is his versatility that makes him a must pick for the Titans, as they are pretty sound at safety. The hometown kid will be a seat magnet for years to come, at first because of his familiarity, but later because of his undeniable skill. This is all assuming that the Titans are content with Vince Young and do not take a chance on either Jake Locker or Jimmy Clausen.

1. STL- *Sam Bradford- Oklahoma

2. TB- Ndamukong Suh- Nebraska

3. KC- Russell Okung- Oklahoma State

4. OAK- Talyor Mays- USC

5. CLE- *Gerald McCoy- Oklahoma

6. TEN- *Eric Berry- S- Tennessee- 5'11'' 203lbs- Jr

Mailbag

A quick reminder to all readers to email me their fantasy football questions, including trades and WDIS (who do i starts). Also any suggestions/comments/ anyone wanting to collaborate/ anything else is also welcome.

donofdynastys@gmail.com

The Cleveland Frowns

The puns continue as we reach the midway point through the bottom 10. With some studs off the board, at number 5 the browns are on the outside looking in on some of their desired prospects. However there is still an abundance of talent left, and with a number of holes that need filling (this team is like paris hilton), finding a selection should be no big deal. The Defensive ends in Cleveland's 3-4 scheme have underperformed tremendously, and are a huge reason that the Browns are in the bottom 3 in rush ypg allowed. Gerald McCoy can play as a traditional DT in a 4-3 and as well as an end in the 3-4. He has great size, and will immediately give Shuan Rodgers some help off the line and will create some holes for Wimbley to wreak havoc in the backfield.

1. STL- *Sam Bradford- Oklahoma

2. TB- Ndamukong Suh- Nebraska

3. KC- Russell Okung- Oklahoma State

4. OAK- Taylor Mays- USC

5. CLE- *Gerald McCoy- 6'4'' 295lbs DT- Oklahoma- Jr

No. 8 Cincinnati- 34 @ No. 21 USF- 17

The match up of Big East titans (if there is such a thing) did not quite live up to its billing on Thursday night. Despite a great first half effort, the Bulls of South Florida fell apart in the second period, and Cincinnati got a huge road win to boost its resume. It was the tale of two quarterbacks, with one being a seasoned five year veteran with high nfl aspirations (Tony Pike), the other a freshman from tallahassee, who was not even recruited by his home town noles to play qb, who has been forced into the starting line up due to injuries to their offensive leader (Matt Groethe- out for the season) (B.J. Daniels).

In the first quarter it seemed as though the freshman was the one that the twenty five NFL scouts were there to see. He looked poised in the pocket, electric on his feet, and completed some nice throws over the middle as they cut through the Bearcats D on their opening drive. Pike had a rough start, but completed 6 of 7 on a scoring drive before the half that reminded everyone of why he is considered such an elite prospect. His most memorable pass of the night was on that very drive, he thread the needle on third and long while showing a little mobility rolling to his left and hitting his man down field. Daniels seemed every bit his equal until an errant pass got picked off and returned all the way to the Bulls 5 yard line. From that moment on he did not look as good throwing the football, while he did a great job creating time for himself by eluding rushers, his throws were often inaccurate and late (although the offensive line should shoulder some of that blame). Tony Pike gave NFL scouts some concerns when he left the game in the third quarter after re injuring his non throwing wrist. He has already been ruled out for the next game against Louisville, and his durability concerns will ultimately hurt his draft stock.

Hot:

1. George Selvie and Jason Pierre Paul -DE's-USF.... the pass rush was the lone bright spot on defense, as the two of them were relentless at getting in the backfield and disrupting plays. Selvie got a sack and caused a fumble, while Pierre Paul had 2 tackles for a loss and hit the Bearcat's stand-in qb causing an interception late in the game that gave his team a chance to come back. Both of these kids will be playing on Sundays for a long time.

2. Tony Pike- QB-Cincy- This kid showed that is more than capable of making throws, and did a good job giving the Bearcats a lead before coming out of the game in the third. He threw 2 td passes and tallied 140 yards through basically one half of play. There were stretches of this game where he did look very human. Cincy only amassed two total first downs in the first quarter of play. His running game was virtually nonexistent with him at the helm, which enabled the Bulls to focus their intense rush on the quarterback.

3. Jeff Linkenbach- OT- Cincy...he had the task of taking Selvie 1-1 while they focused the double teams on JPP. I like the way this kid played, he is physical, big, and athletic. He did well getting down field on the few screens they ran, and what little success they had running the ball before Collaros' 75 yard scamper was to his side.

4. BJ Daniels- QB- USF- This kid is going to have a bright future. He has a great deep throw he just needs to work on his timing and accuracy, two things that will definitely improve throughout his tenure in the green and gold. He has a lot of the intangibles, and he is extremely elusive both in the pocket and running in the open field. The Bulls definitely have found their qb of the future.

5. Mardy Gilyard- WR- Cincy- He showed why he is one of the top wr prospects in the draft. He showed precise route running, great hands, and great vision. He did a good job both as a receiver and bringing back some kicks. He is deceptively fast and has a bunch of big play potential every time he is around the pigskin.

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Cold:

1. Jerome Murphy- CB- USF- This kid is a gifted athlete but he definitely was a detriment to his team this outing. He had 3 personal foul penalties, one of which was a 3rd and goal from the ten yard line, with the game at 24-17 late in the second half. He also dropped an interception. Many feel he may be the best player in this Bulls' secondary, and he showed glimpses of that talent, but the cons definitely outweighed the pros tonight.

2. The USF receiving corp- between Griffin, Bogan, Richardson and Mitchell, the Bulls have been looking for someone to step up. At first it looked like it would be Hester, after his 28 yard td grab in the first quarter. However after that he was held to 2 catches for 13 yards. They had a few drops, Griffin mis ran some routes. They need to do a lot better job of throwing their freshman quarterback a bone if this team is even going to finish the season ranked in the top 25.

TNF

Tonight viewers across America get a chance to take a pause from the mundane trivialities of daily life and experience a little weekend prematurely with a great match up of top 25 teams, No 8. Cincinnati and No. 21 USF.

There are a number of pro prospects to watch for in this game and they include:

George Selvie -OLB- USF

Mike Ford- RB-USF

JK Schaeffer- Cincinnati

Tony Pike- WR-Cincinnati

Marty Gilyard- WR- Cincinatti

and some day maybe even tallahassee native, BJ Daniels- QB- USF

Stay posted til after the game for my analysis